For me, Tuesday November 5th is my liberation day. Either way things go, I will excise Donald Trump from my brain for good.

Note to reader: This post is about politics. If you are not interested, skip it.

Like most Canadians, I share some disbelief that Trump could become President again. My friends consistently ask me why I think the U.S. Election is so close. Here’s what I think.

For the past forty years, the Republican Party has forsaken governance for winning power at any cost, to paraphrase Clausewitz “war by other means”. Meanwhile, Democrats have just continued their struggle to do governance in a dysfunctional Congress.

Given this, it’s not surprising that someone like Trump could do a takeover of the party. What has emerged is a coalition of populism and conservatism, each roughly half of the current Republican base. Trump’s core is populist – the left behind. These include white nationalists facing inexorable demographic change; the Christian right losing their legacy; and less skilled/educated workers not sufficiently sharing in national wealth.

The other half of Republican voters is conservatives – mainly traditional conservatives, libertarians and free-marketers, i.e. the core of the old party of Regan, Bush and Cheney.

My Liberation Day – The Cognitive Dissonance Election

Our 2024 U.S. election is dominated by cognitive dissonance for conservatives and, for the populists, simple denial. Cognitive dissonance is discomfort that arises with distance between actions you are taking (behaviors) and things you believe (attitudes). You resolve cognitive dissonance by rationalizing, denying, disrupting and just plain lying. Eventually, your dissonant behaviors create coping attitudes. This is essentially how the Republican coalition holds itself together.

The Harris campaign sees an opportunity with the conservative element of the Republican coalition. For maybe a third of the conservative half of Republicans – maybe 15% of the total – their cognitive dissonance has become painful. So, Harris is betting that enough reality will enter the minds of these less committed Trump voters such that they act to reduce the pain.

Keep this in mind. A large portion of voters will lie to friends and neighbors (and pollsters). Since behaviors are based on social norms, and since the Trump populist base is extremely tribal, openly expressing your feelings against Trump comes with a high social cost. But these feelings exist and have been exacerbated by his recent behaviors.

My Liberation Day – Voting is Anonymous

The ballot box is one of the few private places left on earth. If you form secret, explicit attitude against voting for Trump, you can behave accordingly and no one will ever know. It is a cost-free decision.

And this is the Harris strategy, to reduce the pain of cognitive dissonance for maybe 15% of Republicans. Consider her messages which resonate with Democrats and some of the conservative half of Republicans. “Country over Party” is aimed at traditional conservatives. “Freedom” and “Trust Women” is aimed at libertarians. “When we vote we win” and “turn the page” are clear invitations to eliminate the pain of cognitive dissonance once and for all. And I say all this without even getting into “character” which has to be an issue effecting the private voting decision.

So, I think Harris will win. I could be wrong. If Trump wins, I am going to firewall U.S. news for four years. Either way, I am liberated.